Monday 11 June 2012

Survey of 18- Bypolls. Part - 2

As we have reported earlier about the survey we have done. We have given the part 1 survey which belonged to Rayalseema region and also one Parliamentary seat.


Though YSRCP would win all the segments posted in previous part. We have said there will be close finish in Tirupati segment and may witness in Allagada, which is not possible though. It is the voting percentage which would decide the final result.


Coming to other segments, the rest are in Coastal Andhra and Parakal seat.


Parakal, the constituency from Telengana region. Here Congress and TDP are in back row and major competition is between BJP, TRS and YSRCP. YSRCP candidate Konda Surekha resigned her cabinet post after demise of YSR and after that she voted against Congress forsake of Telenganahood. She made clear statements of saying that she sacrificed her cabinet position for YSR and resigned for MLA for Telengana. There was good response for her. But conversion of votes is doubtful. 


Being in Warangal a strong force of Telenagana, her win is bleak. However, TRS also is unsure of victory, though they have placed a big bet here of winning. It is doubtful they win as people are fed up of false promises of KCR and is highly unseen in region in normal days. BJP, it is growing as strong force in Telengana region as of now. The candidate they posted is also a good and honest man. 


So, we couldn't figure it out the winner in Parakala. But the contesting is between BJP and YSRCP/TRS. YSRCP pulled ahead in campaigning in last ten days or so before elections, which was not expected. The legendary women vote bank gets divided here. Some move towards Jagan and some to BJP/TRS. So, this seat is real tough for YSRCP and equally tough for BJP and TRS.


Moving to coastal Andhra now, Narsanapet, the tug of war between brothers. Dharmana brothers are virtually divided here. While elder Dharmana holds a cabinet post in Kiran government, second one is out of congress and the third is contesting here against his elder brother. Dharmana Krishna Das is contesting here against Congress Dharmana Ramdas. Krishna Das will win here. It is believed that Krishna Das has done good work to move to YSRCP as people are fed up with monopoly of Dharmana brothers in congress. Krishna Das is banking on sympathy votes of he being alone in his family and also Jagan symapthy votes.


Now Payakaraopet, constituency in visakhapatnam district. Golla Babu Rao is YSRCP candidate here, he was in second position. But after Vijayamma's superb success road show, he has made himself be first in race. Women votes play pivot role. He has better chance of winning now. here, TDP candidate was ahead but now tough fight is expected between Congress and YSRCp. Thanks to good rigorous campaign of Congress. Babu Rao might pull out this.


Ramachandrapuram, Pilli Subhash Chandra Bose, a minister in Rosaiah cabinet has resigned for sake of Jagan. He was one of the front runner to oppose high command's decision of making roasaiah CM. Thota Thrimurthulu and Chikala Ramachandra reddy are participating from congress and TDP. Pilli would win this seat quite comfortably. 


Narsapuram, a seat where YSRCP is in two minds. Though not confused, but has doubts. Prasad Raju is participating here. he is banking only on Jagan. He is not a good runner in people. But fortune changed for him after rigorous campaign of Jagan and Vijayamma. Kothapali Subbarayudu and Ramachandra reddy are the other major candidates. Subba Rayudu is a very good candidate and he is expecting to pull this. But according to me, Prasad Raju might just pull out as Babu Rao.


Pollavaram, can be a close contest but YSRCP has edge here. It is learnt that voting share plays here key role in who wins. There are segments in this constituency who have vote bank to only one group and not even one vote is polled to others. Balaraju from YSRCP and Pravathi from Congress, Sreenivas from TDP. YSRCP would pull out this one too.


Prathipadu, Sucharitha is participating here on YSRCP ticket. Sudhakar babu candidate on Congress. Its reall tough one for YSRCP. Sucharitha is banking on women votes and Jagan's charisma. Its real tough one. Might be on the losing side too. A close one for sure.


Macherla, yet another family rivalry here. Pinmeli Ramakrishna reddy and Pinemeli Lakshma reddy are on YSRCP and Congress. It is Abbai-babai war here. YSrCP would win this segment. As Ramakrishna is a young candidate and is also having good name in constituency.


Ongole, Balineni Srinivas Reddy, an ex-minister in Roasaiah office. He was along with Pilli Subhash Chandra Bose and both were extremely close and were mounting pressure always forsake of Jagan. Yet another confident seat for YSRCP. No Doubt victory here. Bet on majority here. Parvathi is cnontesting here on Congress.


The last seat, Udayagiri... Mekkapati family member. Mekapati Chandrasekhar Reddy on YSRCP and Kambam Vijay Rami Reddy is on Congress. It is no doubt YSRCP seat. Mekapati has strong influnece in this segment. Infact, they can dominate Nellore district politics in coming days. Chandrasekhar Reddy will win with as much as 15000 majority if I am not wrong. Though VijayRami Reddy is good choice here. He is not as good as Chandrasekhar. 


So, that concludes our report. Where you see that majority are one sided and some are bi war and some are tri war. It is left to voters. In few hours the voting starts and almost 72 hours later results will be given. So, please do read our updates coming in few more hours from now. 


We will be giving our good reasons why we haven't given TDP candidate names after updates of voting. We will be updating the special report of what happens if YSRCP wins every thing. As of now bye and stay tuned for updates.

No comments:

Post a Comment