Tuesday 29 May 2012

No violence after Jagan arrest. YSRCP losing steam?

After YSRCP chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's arrest, there was no big movement in bandh. YSRCP leaders declare bandh as it is a mandatory. But where is the bandh seen?


Apart from YSR Kadapa, Anantapur no where bandh was effective. Though every district had got hit in financial manner. Infact RTC buses have been suspended and also there was rackus created by last cadre.


As many as 6 districts reported close to normal life. Though many are in telengana region. Where YSRCP doesn't have that great cadre when compared to any other region in A.P. But, why they didn't have any struggles, lathi charges or anything?


Reasons:


First of all Jagan's party has no steam loss. Its simply because, violence created will give an opportunity to opposition to win elections and his arrest will be nothing but stupidity. If there is steam loss, there will be no record gathering for his tours. Jagan attracted as much as twice gathering then TDP or Congress leaders. 


Jagan's arrest is not a sudden or new sensation. It was well expected by every one in state. There was surprise when Jagan wasn't arrested on day one and two. He was arrested. But bringing Vijayamma to mass was a safe bet. Initial reports said, only 14 or 16 would be in YSRCP basket but now all 18 can be in YSRCP basket. Which would bring their bench strength to 20. And it may well reach 30 in no time.


Secondly, Jagan repeated that no violence. He in fact wants this elections happen and sweep, irrespective of his position. His strategy is unclear there. It is unclear that how long this sentiment work out. People get fed up until 2014 with repeating dialogues.


But that is the point. Jagan kept on saying YSR is leader and is GOD and it worked out and still working. Remember he died in 2009 and elections were in 2011. Two years and his majority doubled. Kovvur elections the same scene repeated. Three years was that. Now with just 2 years left and insecurity in State and Center with prices and political happenings. It is believed that elections may arrive in 2013 also. 


Many survey's predicted hung or coalition government will form. People are not ready for Congress led UPA or BJP led NDA. Where UPA is with corruption and scams. BJP is with corruption and religion-ism. So, there role would be cut out when local parties have upper hand. They can be single largest party but cannot have anything in hand with out this local support.




In that case, YSRCP comes as King Maker. It has 42 seats and if they win atleast 30. Its a watch. CBI case and everything will come to an end. 


Third, Vijayamma may not be good speaker. But when she speaks, she speaks out everything from heart and hit many hearts. You can see many women coming to meetings now. After all, ladies will know a lady's problem. Sentiment is forever with them. Men's voting has come down in recent days, but women voting share is on raise forever. Jagan is banking on that and surely a mind blogging strategy which many experts will never care.


Jagan arrest can create havoc after 12 June. Once elections are over. YSRCP cadre has nothing to lose and people are on track with their works. Then the charge-sheet issue comes and they can make a hell out of havoc there. They can burn and can kick. So, its not over yet. 


All the above analysis is author's view. He is not accounted for anything with happenings after this. Read in clean manner. Opaque understanding is appreciated. 

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