Survey on Semi Finals By-polls - Part 1

After major time stress out, we have made our way to sketch the final possible result of the semi final considered 18- bypoll elections.


The 18 assembly seats and 1 parliamentary seat which is the hot topic now. As the campaigning ended yesterday and the arrangements for voting are also done. The voting and result is awaited. Though we will bring the updates for you tomorrow while polling. But first we would get you a clear image of the voting and winning percentages.


We have tried extensively for analyzing win percentage, but couldn't figure out as we had clear winners in as many as 10 constituencies. Consider it as one sided poll.


Starting with Nellore Parliamentary seat. YSRCP candidate Mekapati Rajamohan reddy and Congress candidate T Subbarami reddy are the main contenders for the set. Though TDP has kept their candidate. He was not seen in campaigning nor people turned out for seeing Chandra Babu during campaign. Nellore seat is one sided game. Betting is placed on majority of MRR. YSRCP will have 2 M.P.'s in parliament now.


Tirupati the seat which was left by once PRP now Congress leader, star campaigner Chiranjeevi. He left MLA seat as he was given Rajya Sabha ticket and is now a Congress M.P. YSRCP fielded Bhumana Karunakar Reddy  and Congress gave it to Venkata Ramana. Last time Chiranjeevi won on Bhumana K Reddy with almost 15000 votes if I am not wrong. This time it is clear that Bhumana will win this seat, but majority might not be great as confusion prevails in voting for YSRCP or Congress. As both candidates have less charisma in constituency. It is triplet war here. And YSRCP can win this seat.


Being in Rayalseema, its turn for Railway Koduru, here YSRCP has Sreenivasulu and Congress has Eswaraya. Being YS Jagan's district Kadapa. In fact Jagan's arena of Rayalseema, he can win anywhere. And this seat is no different in the case. YSRCP will win this seat comfortably.


Coming to Rayachoti, another Kadapa district constituency. YSRCP candidate Amarnath Reddy who is the loyalist for Jagan. Too good loyalist will win this seat very comfortably. He has a very good bank of castes and also Lady voters. Congress fielded Ramprasad Reddy here.


Rajamapet, YSRCP candidate Amarnath Reddy contesting here. He would win very easily. He has good backing of minorities apart from top vote banks. You can say betting on majority is an issue here. Congress candidate is Mallikarjuna Reddy.


Allagada, constituency in Kurnool district, YSRCP candidate Shoba Nagi Reddy, who was part of PRP, broke bonds with chiru when he merged his party into congress and supported Jagan. She won 2009 general elections with good majority inspite of having weak PRP cadre in seema region. Now in YSRCP, her cadre is back and she is in full swing. No matter who are opponents, she will see the winning line comfortably.


Emignur, Errakota Chenna keshava reddy is the candidate contesting here from YSRCP, the hot favourite to win the seat.


Rayadurgam is having a fierce battle between YSRCP and COngress. Kapu rama chandra Reddy from YSRCP and Patil Venugopal Reddy from congress. Its unclear about certain victory here. YSRCP might pull off well here too. 


Anantapur Urban, Gurunath Reddy and Marshid Begum are top contenders from YSRCP and congress. Gurunath Reddy has minority backing and as well as other important backing of Lady voters. Vijayamma road shows have damaged congress hopes here. He would win.


That brings to an end of Rayalseema region, where Tirupati is having the toughest competition and rest all having minor. However, Allagada is important as Gangula Pratap Reddy who is in competition is strong compender but he was reluctant to participate in elections. And it is learnt, he was not interested in campaigning.


We will update the part 2 in few hours. The next coming will be the Coastal constituencies and Parakal constituency.

Analysis of By-Polls in Andhra Pradesh

With Election Commission releasing notification for 7 vacant Assembly seats. The time has come to prove the stiffness and dug of the parties who are really threatening each other in media.


Out of 7 seats, 6 are from Telengana region and 1 from Coastal Andhra region. With YSR CP clearing that they are not interested in contesting from any of telengana seat as they feel that all the leaders resigned for sake of Telengana and they don't have any intentions of taking over T- factor. With statement made clear, they have only one  seat from Andhra to contest and which was resigned by Prassana Kumar Reddy.N for including Late CM YSR Reddy in CBI report. He was MLA on TDP ticket from Kovvur constituency but was loyalist to YSR Jagan Reddy right from winning election in 2009.


The rest 6 seats are from Telengana region. They are:


Mahaboob Nagar


Kollapur


Nagar Kurnool


Adilabad


Station Ghanpur


Kama Reddy


Mahaboob Nagar seat vacant as MLA N Rajeswar Reddy was driven by untimely death. Congress named Mutyala Prakash instead of widow Vijayalakshmi, meanwhile TRS has also named its person, making Vijayalakshmi as independent to contest.


With unknown of her candidature one can expect TRS victory here, if they campaign at high levels or wise it would be a tussle between Congress and TRS. If at all Vijayalakshmi is set to contest as Independent and could intensify her campaigning then it would be a cake walk for her victory as there will be major twist towards her on Sympathy factor.


Kollapur seat became vacant as Juppali Krishna Rao resigned to Congress and MLA seat and joined in TRS. Now, P Vishnuvardhan Reddy has been handed responsibility to win back Congress seat. Minister D K Aruna and Juppalli were having hits in congress and now Juppalli joining in TRS, She made her impact felt on High Command by appointing her loyalist to contest against Krishna Rao.


It should be very easy to take back seat by Juppalli as he has been struggling for Telengana as separate state and was attracted by many other people of other constituency. So, its not a big tough task for JKR to win and add number to TRS. Its really tough for P Vishnuvardhan Reddy to win.


Nagar Kurnool, seat vacant as Sitting MLA Nagam Janardhan Reddy resigned for telengana cause and also an additional reason of Pathified relation by his then supremo Chandra Babu Naidu towards telengana. 


Nagam Janardhan Reddy will win this seat. That's what report says... Its just matter of his majority, though it would not be a major.


Station Ghanpur is to witness the battle between once i.e., Ex- MLA Kadiyam Sri Hari. T Rajaiah from congress resigned here. It would be really interesting fight here. TDP is just trying to get back in Telengana with this seat, while TRS is confident of sweeping this seat also.


Other seats are also of the same case, where fight between TRS and Congress would be seen, but majority would be won by TRS. Infact there might be all win for TRS.


Meanwhile,Kovvur seat would be won by YSR CP candidate N. Prassana Kumar Reddy over TDP's SomiSekhar Reddy. Congress candidates were reluctant to contest from here. Both YSR CP and TDP have started campaigning here. And YSRCP supreme Jagan would be campaigning here in 2 rounds. The first being on March 2nd. It is said that, Prasanna has good base in here.


Somisekhar and Prasanna Kumar are relatives. This being twist. No permanent friends and relatives in politics apply here.


That is the analysis of by polls in Andhra Pradesh. Lets wait for results. March 18 is action day and March 21 is decision day. 


The analysis done here is of basic knowledge and situations present in respective constituencies and also the x factors of candidates and parties. Author does not hold any responsibility for discrepancies. However scrutinized information is made available here for sake of betterment and flexibility.